Monday, October 15, 2018

The Big Drop? This could be a metaphor for the stock market today


Here's the thing I don't get about economics.  Everybody... every single person in our society, uses money.  Even the completely anti-capitlism communists use money to pay their iPhone bill and buy their over-priced latte's.  So when there's a big recession, it affects everybody, to some degree.  In the case of the Great Recession of 2007-2008, the downturn and falling housing market destroyed a lot of peoples lives.  Millions of them.  Many have never recovered.  Much of small town and rural America seems to have been in recession mode ever since.

As humans, a lot of people prepare for hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, wildfires, and earthquakes.  We don't prepare as much as we should, but most people buy insurance, some put some water bottles in the closet, a flashlight, maybe some dehydrated meals, or at least some PopTarts and granola bars.  Not everyone does this, but when there's a big storm coming, most people hit the store for supplies at the last minute, if they don't have some already.  It's actually a joke in the Southern states about people buying the local grocery stores out of "bread and milk" when snow is forecast.

But almost nobody prepares for recessions.  It's not that hard.  Stash a little cash somewhere safe in your house, in case the ATM's go down for a bit due to tech problems.  Put some of your savings in gold or silver.  Silver is around $15 an ounce right now, so don't tell me you can't afford it.  Pull money out of the stock market when we're deep into a long bull market, and put it in something else.  Get a self-directed IRA or 410k.  Cut down some of the unnecessary expenses.  There's a lot people can do, just reasonable actions, to be better prepared for a recession.  We have a recession every 4 to 10 years, so it's not like they are unexpected.  This is not financial advice, just a list of steps some people take to prepare for recessions.

And yet they ARE unexpected to most people.  In today's media rich world with the internet, You Tube, blogs, AND mainstream media, there are people talking about it.  But somehow, people buy houses, lease expensive cars, and put out a lot of money on things, yet blow off the idea that another recession will come in a few years.

I've been predicting this next recession for quite a while.  So has Robert Kiyosaki, Peter Schiff, and Jim Rogers, among others.  Those are rich guys who are highly respected, where I'm not.  But I watch these things, too.  I've actually had my life threatened, back in North Carolina, for blogging about the next recession, and economics, because I don't have a degree in this area.  Seriously, my life and well being was repeatedly threatened for this.  That's how crazy people get about the idea.

The next recession may not happen right now, but the macroeconomic events are set in place, like huge amount of debt, for one.  The stock markets tanked big, and more important, unexpectedly, last Wednesday and Thursday.  There was a small bounce back Friday, back up about 300 of the 1,300 points lost on the Dow.  And then everyone went into the weekend going, "Uh... things are starting to look sketchy."  Overnight, the Asian markets dropped further.  Sears, the most solid and respected department store of my youth, went bankrupt this morning.  That was expected, they've been dying slowly for a couple decades.  But the timing is unfortunate.

Today has THE POTENTIAL for being a "BLACK MONDAY," the kind of day when we look back later and say, "that was the day the shit hit the fan."  The stock markets open in an hour and a half.  Gold, which people have bought throughout history when things got crazy, went up 1% overnight.
Things could get wild today.  Take a deep breath, and let's see what happens.  Every single one of us use money in our life.  Maybe we should pay a little more attention to the world of money...

Monday evening 10/15/2018- No huge drop today.  The macro issues that will lead to the next recession are lined up.  But the amount of apparent manipulation to keep the market from dropping continues.  Normally, after a huge drop like last week, there would be a big bounce back this week.  The Nasdaq quickly dropped 1% today, then bounced up and down.  But Dow Industrial, the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and the Russell 2000 all wound up down.  So, I was wrong on the big drop timing, but the markets couldn't manage to climb back any. 

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