Showing posts with label the 2020s. Show all posts
Showing posts with label the 2020s. Show all posts

Saturday, November 19, 2022

Creative Scenes: Where progress comes from


To be fair, this little group is an outlier, one of the most influential creative scenes in human history.  They were much more influential than most Creative Scenes.  But that wasn't apparent in the beginning, which is the point.  The Homebrew Club, including it's best known members Steve Wozniak and Steve Jobs, created personal computers.  Wozniak and Jobs founded Apple Computers, now Apple, which brought us the Macintosh, iPods, and iPhones, among many other innovations.  A small group of creative people, a "creative scene," can have all kinds of effects, and even change the course of human history.

They were geeks when that was something everyone did not want to be.  But they found themselves fascinated by eletronics, and the emerging technology of computers.  Here's an interview from about 2004, with six early members of the 1975 Homebrew Club, in Menlo Park, California, including Steve Wozniak.  These six geeks from the 1970's, and the others from their scene, changed the lives of nearly every single on earth.  For real.  That's how major of an effect a small creative scene can potentially have.

What is a "Creative Scene?"  My definition of a Creative Scene is a group of two or more people, focused on advancing in some creative endeavor.  Two kids in the back of a 3rd grade class trying to draw better airplanes than each other is a Creative Scene.  A group of artists at a small indie gallery is a Creative Scene.  The kids and staff working on a high school yearbook is a creative scene.  A band, no matter how good or bad, is a creative scene.  The kids riding skateboards, BMX bikes, and yes, even scooters,* at a skatepark, is a creative scene.  Two women making Aunt Agnes' gooseberry jelly and selling it online, is a creative scene.  Travis Patrana and the Nitro Circus lunatics is a Creative Scene.  Todd McFarlane and the original posse that started Image Comics were a creative scene.  Three 9-year-old girls in the front yard making up dance moves, is a Creative Scene.  Amanda Palmer and whomever she's hanging out with at this moment, is a Creative Scene.  One time Old School BMX freestyler Chris Lashua and his Cirque Mechnic is a Creative Scene.  A blog or YouTube channel's creator(s) and their followers, are a creative scene.  CBGB's in the 1970's, and later, was a creative scene.  The group of Montreal street performers that created Cirque du Soleil, was a Creative Scene.  The people riding BMX and mountain bikes at Sheep Hills today, is a creative scene.  Gary Vaynerchuk and the people at VaynerMedia is a creative scene.  Tyler Perry's movie studio in Atlanta is a Creative Scene.  Yuga Labs, a hanfdul of artistic, former punk and hip hop influenced skateboarders and BMXers from Miami, that created the Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT's, and the Otherside metaverse, is a Creative Scene.  And yes, Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak, in their garage, Woz's cubicle, and Steve's bedroom, in 1975, were a Creative Scene... on that birthed Apple.  You get the idea.  

We all have some idea what an art scene or a music scene is.  They are not only the artists or the bands, but the local gallery owners, the patrons who buy pieces of work or go see shows, the local arts organizations that plan the First Friday Art Walk, the local bars and clubs where bands play, and all the people playing roles who support these people and the scenes.  Those are the best known kind of Creative Scenes.  

There are scenes within scenes.  There are better and worse scenes.  Most Creative Scenes don't have any major influence, except to help people become more creative, and learn skills, either creative, ogranizational, or business-wise.  A healthy creative environment, let's say a thriving city's creative community, has dozens, maybe hundreds, of loosely interconnected scenes, with many types of people playing roles in multiple scenes, moving between scenes, and bouncing off of, and inspiring each other.  This type or creative environment separates a city like Austin, Texas from say Detroit, Michigan.  Both have creative scenes, Detroit has been huge force in music from Motown to rock n' roll to early electronic music.  But it's been devastated economically, and continues ot struggle as a city.  Austin is peaking as a Creative Scene city, and currently thriving financially as a major tech hub city, where economic and creative Detroit's heydays were decades ago.  But the cheap cost of living and post apocalyptic scenes of Detroit may set the seeds for more great Creative Scenes in the future.  Time will tell.  

This theme, Creative Scenes, is something I've been learning about since the 1980's, as a BMX freestyler, and ever since, through many creative projects, jobs, and experiences.  I even lived in an indie art gallery once, back in 2005-6.  That's where my Sharpie Scribble Style art technique was born.  

Right now, in late 2022, I believe we are on the cusp of some of the biggest changes in society in modern times, which will take place over several years.  Creative Scenes is where I'm going to focus my energy for the forseeable future.  I've got a lot to say on the subject, so it's time to get to work.  Buckle up, it's gonna be a crazy ride.  


*As an Old School BMX guy, I love to make fun of scooter riders.  And then R Willy came along...  Damn him.


Tuesday, July 20, 2021

The Phoenix Great Depression, and my financial predictions for 2020 and 2021


Hey, maybe I'm just a pessimist, don't pay any attention to me.  

On the morning of January 26th, 2020, when Covid-19 was just "some disease in China" and conventional wisdom was that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would surge up to 35,000 soon, I made these predictions (linked below).  Every single prediction seemed completely nuts at the time I wrote them.  My numbers for the Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2,000 all came true within a couple of months.  

My biggest mistake in my thinking in 2020 was that I dramatically underestimated The Fed's willingness to create so much new money, to prop up the economy, that it will (and has) dramatically devalue the U.S. dollar.  What we call inflation is the process of prices catching up with the devalued dollar (or other currency), due to dramatically increased money supply (up nearly 25% in 2020 alone).  This process takes a couple of years to work through.  Inflation will continue to rise for another year or two, it's just beginning.  Full blown hyperinflation is a distinct possibility. 

Predictions 2020

On January 4th, 2021, two days before the treasonous attack on the U.S. capitol by Donald Trump supporters, while trying out a new blog, I made financial predictions for this year (2021).  Bitcoin was 31,431 then.  In a side note, I said Bitcoin at $50,000 wouldn't surprise me in 2021.  That's the only prediction that has actually happened so far, eventually followed by a huge drop.  It's now below 30,000 at the moment.  The prediction for silver is a typo, I expect silver to rise above $43 a troy ounce in 2021, not rise by $43 in price. 

 Again, The Fed has created far more money than I expected, and the inflation we are now seeing is the beginning of the effect from that.  This has delayed the drops I see happening in stocks and real estate this year, but not prevented them.  We'll see how close, if at all, these predictions come to reality by the end of 2021.  When I wrote this blog post below, about 400,000 Americans had died of Covid-19 complications, the number is now over 624,000, and cases are surging again. I predicted 750,000 Covid deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021.  Unfortunately, we're headed that direction far to fast.

Predictions 2021

 In October 6th, 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic was even on the horizon, I wrote this blog post about why I thought the next recession would be a time a massive and incredible change.  The "Repo Market crisis" had just begun, and was expected to be handled  by The Fed in a week or two.  Conventional wisdom was that we MIGHT have a minor recession in 2021.  Maybe.  Obviously, I disagreed.  Here's that October 6, 2019 blog post, The Phoenix Recession.  I saw a full blown depression coming, but no one wanted to hear the "D" word in 2019, so I called it a recession.  Obviously, we went into a serious recession, technically a depression (10% or greater drop in GDP in Q2 2020), in 2020. 

I believe we are now 22 months into what I call The Phoenix Great Depression.  This will be a 5 to 8 year economic crisis that will come in waves, and appear to rebound at times.  But for the majority of Americans, by the time we hit 2027, it will feel like we have been through a full blown Great Depression.  Those in the official capacity to decide that we are in a depression will do anything to avoid that determination these days.  If the Great Depression of the 1930's happened right now, it would be called a "triple dip recession" with  "great rebounds" in between the dips.  We are that far detached from reality now.  The second big wave of The Phoenix Great Depression is getting ready to hit us as I write this, in July 20, 2021.  

Here's my most in depth post about The Phoenix Great Depression, and why I think the 2020's will be a period of change like any other in hundreds of years.  

 Check out my new blogs:

 The Big Freakin' Transition- about the future and economics

Crazy California 43- Weird and cool locations in California

Full Circle- about writing and the writer's life

And my fiction blog...

Stench: Homeless Super hero- I'm writing fiction now about the world's first homeless super hero, Stench.

Crazy California 43- Weird, cool, and historic locations in California.

 

Kieran Woolley's "Opera" segment

I never heard of him before today, which doesn't mean much.  But this is a really cool skate segment, so check it out.   I do most of my...