Showing posts with label futurist. Show all posts
Showing posts with label futurist. Show all posts

Saturday, September 22, 2018

An Engineer's Son: Why I'm always looking to the future


This locomotive, to pull trains in mines, was made by Plymouth Locomotive Works, where my dad, Tom Emig, worked in the late 1970's.  The company went under in about 1983, but decades later, Plymouth locomotives are still working around the world.  That's what they were known for, incredible reliability.

I write about a bunch of totally different things on this blog, from old school BMX freestyle stories to  economics and our future.  Quite a few people wonder why I keep writing about the recessions, the economics of the United States, and things I never went to school for.  These are the blog posts that I've actually had my life and well being threatened over several times.  Some people think I have no business writing about these subjects.  Sorry.  This is a huge area of interest for me, and I'm always looking to the future and where we're headed as a society.  Why?  Because I'm an engineer's son.

And that's where Plymouth Locomotives, like the one above, come in.  I was about ages 10 to 13 when my dad worked at Plymouth Locomotive Works, in Plymouth, Ohio.  The Industrial Age was still roaring, most people worked in factories, or in the office next to the factory, like my dad.  This was the first plant I remember my dad taking me to as a kid, walking me through on a Saturday morning, as he went to check on something being built on overtime hours by the shop guys.  It was in this factory that he taught me to always look away and shield my eyes when I saw someone welding, since that super bright glare can damage unshielded eyes.

It was around this time that my dad first explained how he designed things.  I can't remember the actual situation, but I remember his outlook on how something should be designed.  First, he had to design a machine.  So, like this mining locomotive above, He had to make a machine a certain size, to fit certain sized rails, with all the parts needed to pull mine trains through tunnels in mines around the world.  So he had a certain size locomotive, and he and the other engineers had to make the engine, drive train, hydraulics, and all the mechanical pieces fit into that machine.  But that was only the start.  My dad knew that people had to work on and inspect his machines, so he thought about how that would happen, and in the case of this locomotive, they painted the whole thing white, inside and out, to help inspectors and mechanics who would be working on these in low light years later.  My dad would call the customer, and ask what the weather was like where the machine would be used.  Did it have to deal with 120 degree heat or 40 below zero cold?  That was taken into account.

My dad thought about how the machine, like this locomotive, would be shipped to the job site.  Would it be partially taken apart, ride on a train, a ship, a truck, and then have to be reassembled?  How could he design it to make that reassembly process happen better and without damage to the machine?  Would the machine operate in a place with lots of dust?  That was taken into account.  Would the machine operate in high humidity where rust and mud and sludge would be an issue? He took that into account.

Then, once all those factors were thought out, my dad would go out into the shop floor, and he'd sit down on a pallet, over lunch, with the welders and machinists and assembly guys, he'd tell them what he was working on, and ask how he could design it to make the actual assembly process easier, more efficient, and smarter.  My dad actually used to get in trouble at Plymouth because he would go out and have lunch with the shop guys, and sketch out a part on a napkin and give it to the machinists.  Then he'd give the official design to the lower level draftsmen, who would make the actual drawing for a part (they actually drew on paper then).  By the time the draftsmen took the official drawing out to the shop to have it built, the part was already sitting there, built perfectly, made from my dad's napkin sketch.  That drove one of his bosses nuts.

At one point, my dad told me his process.  He said he tried to sit there and envision the part he needed to design, how it interacted as a part of the larger machine.  Then he pictured the entire life of that machine, going decades into the future, and he tried to design in every little thing he could to make that part or machine do its job properly, and last as long, and be as reliable as possible.  He tried to anticipate every problem that might occur, and design the solution into the part.  He knew there would always be things he wouldn't think of, or crazy circumstances that may happen.  But he tried to design every machine in a way to alleviate nearly all possible problems that the machine would encounter in its whole working life.

Being my dad's son, I simply thought this was how everything was designed.  I also looked far into the future at what was likely to happen.  But I didn't, and still don't, have the mechanical genius my dad did.  He truly was a genius at what he did.  My area of interest is human society, and projecting what we're doing into the future, looking for the problems that will definitely occur, the problems that will likely occur, and other things that may happen.  Then, like my dad and his locomotives and other machines, I look for the solutions that that will keep most of those problems from happening, or will lessen the bad effects.

We can't predict the future absolutely.  But we can project what we're doing, and look at other major factors, prominent people, and forces in society, and get a good idea of possible problems.  Once we do that, we can, if we truly desire, take actions that will head things in a better, all around more positive, direction.  We can design our world to alleviate or lessen some of the problems will will undoubtedly face.

That's why I write about the next recession, future trends, and social issues.  I'm thinking ahead, finding inevitable issues, and looking for ways to get a head start on dealing with those issues.

Now, there are a lot of powerful people and organizations and informal groups who have their own agendas, many of those agendas are not so good for the whole population.  People with agendas, particularly devious ones, usually have to get a bit delusional to justify their acts.  When you look at these agendas from a more objective point of view, you see they're full of problems and will result in bad consequences.  In the intelligence community world, they even have a name for this, "blowback."  I heard about that when a book of that title came out years ago.

Groups of people are continually making plans, and even conspiring to work their way into power by taking actions that do harm to lots of other people.  Yet they almost always imagine their crazy plans will work, and there will be no reaction.  As an example, since the Reagan era, there have been all kinds of political actions taken to allow certain groups of people to amass huge amounts of money, and the power that went with that money.  Our American society has become horribly corrupt over these past 30-40 years, with CEO's getting $100 million incomes and huge golden parachutes, while the vast majority of people have seen their standard of living drop year after year for decades.  The inevitable consequence of this long term corruption, and manipulation of the financial world, is that the majority of people are really pissed off.  We have huge populist movements rising up, both on the political Right and the political Left.  Yet the people who planned for years to transfer most of our country's wealth from the old American Middle Class to a small financial and political elite, seem completely surprised by the rise of Donald Trump and of Bernie Sanders in the last election.

This was inevitable.  When you take money from 250 to 300 million people for 30-40 years, eventually they wise up and get pissed.  These same people who engineered the American wealth transfer of the last 40 years also didn't see high tech changing the social and business world the way it has.  They definitely didn't have Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Mark Zuckerberg, and the Google duo in their master plan.

I try to look at as many major societal forces as possible, try to imagine how they will interact with each other, and then explain what the INEVITABLE consequences will be.  I'm imagining the future of society at large the way my dad imagined the future of the locomotives he designed, some of which are still working decades after the company went out of business.

Maybe this will help some of you understand why I think about these big picture, long term, issues, and why I write about them.  Because we don't HAVE to deal with all the consequences of the less honest people working in our world.  We can do things today to build a better overall future.  I just point out some of the areas we should take a more serious look at.  

My dad, the engineering genius, a couple of years before his death in 2012.

Thursday, October 26, 2017

Time to think... in jail

Two weeks ago tomorrow, I managed to get myself arrested for the first time ever in my 51 years on Earth.  I landed in a holding cell once, because of a traffic warrant back in about 1989.  But that's it.  I was homeless when I was arrested, and got into the kind of trouble homeless people tend to get into.  I won't go into any details about that, since the court date is coming up.

I was basically deaf in my left ear due to the half a bug stuck in it that I wrote about in the last post.  So I had a hard time understanding some of the questions I was asked.  When I was offered a phone call, I blanked out, and didn't call anyone.  I wound up spending three days in county jail.

That gave me a lot of time to think about my artwork and writing.  I'm making progress with my artwork, and I'm really stoked on that.  I really want to get a camera so I can start shooting my own photos to make drawings of. 

But my writing and blogging have been bouncing around all over the place.  I'm an amateur futurist at heart, I read big books most people don't read, and listen to a lot of online lectures most people don't listen to.  That gives me a better idea of some of the big problems lurking in our future. 

I'm also a guy who likes to brainstorm ideas and possible solutions for problems we'll have to deal with in the future.  So I've written a bunch of blog posts about things that people in this area could do that I think would help build the art, music, and other creative scenes, and create more jobs.  I use this area as an example of the smaller cities and towns around the country that don't have huge tech companies drawing money and talent into their region. 

But I realized that the people actually running things around here don't want to hear my ideas.  I don't have a PhD in economic development.  I've never taken a single college course.  And, I was homeless all summer, and for several of the last 15 years, even though I was working most of that time.  Nobody in a position of power really wants a homeless guy publishing ideas about the city or town they're running. 

So I've decided to stop writing about this specific area as an example of both good and bad things happening in our world today.  I'm going to focus more on the ideas themselves, and getting my ideas out to the people who are more likely to be open to those ideas. 

As Americans, we have a lot of big challenges to deal with in the coming years.  In addition to issues like climate change, a slow growing economy, and social issues like crime and the growing opioid epidemic, we have the "retail apocalypse" wiping out hundreds of thousands of jobs.  We have 400 malls expected to close in the next few years, along with the 5,000 + stores closed this year alone.  Our country has a recession about once a decade, and it's been 9 years since the Great Recession.  We have major fractures in BOTH major political parties, and yet another "get nothing done" Congress.  We also have a serious study projecting that 47% of all jobs could be taken over by technology in the next 20 years.  The top tech people are really freaked out about that issue, but few others think about it. 

There are a ton of big issues looming, and happening right now.  These are some of the ones I'm thinking about and looking for solutions to.  So I'm going to keep writing about these topics, along with old school BMX, skateboarding, and other stuff I'm interested in.  But I'm not going to talk about the area I now live in, and how it stacks up against this region or that region.  I'll look at these issues as things that are happening many places, and write about ideas any of these areas could think about to deal with future issues as they arise. 


Kieran Woolley's "Opera" segment

I never heard of him before today, which doesn't mean much.  But this is a really cool skate segment, so check it out.   I do most of my...