All in on Apecoin since January 2025. Am I an idiot? It sure looks like it... for now.
Way back in December of 2023, I tried to open up a crypto account, but was unable to, because I had a cheap Obama phone. I thought it was a good time to hop into some crypto, but couldn't open an account. So I decided to do a paper trading experiment instead. My question was:
If I had $10,000 to invest on that day (12/11/2023), what would I invest it in?
This is, and has always been a paper trading exercise. It's an imaginary investment account, making imaginary trades, based on market conditions at the time of each trade (including adding in gas fees, etc.).
I picked a handful of cryptos, and have traded in and out (again, purely imaginary- paper trades) since. In a few months, the paper trade fund was up 40%. I've traded in and out of a handful of cryptos, mostly taking profits on those that were up, and re-investing in others. As of January of 2025, this was my paper trade account:
8,685.31 Apecoin
$392.81 in cash
Right now, on August 14 2025, Apecoin is at 60 cents per coin. Total value of my paper trading account currently is:
$5,211.19 in Apecoin, plus $392.81, for a current total of $5,604.
At this point, this paper trading experiment is down 44%, over 20 months. But, my investment window, when I expected this to be a worthwhile investment, has been late 2025 or early 2026 from the start.
My bet was that this Apecoin would rise to a solid investment between July 1, 2025, and June 30, 2026. Yes, it's down big right now, but we're only 6 weeks into the window I was aiming for. As of right now, buying Bitcoin, Eth, or Solana over this time period would have paid off more at this point. Buying Nvidia stock would have paid off more at this point. Even buying gold or silver bullion would have paid off more at this point.
I thought gold was going to go up some in late 2023, but honestly, gold has really surprised me since. That's mostly because this whole scenario is playing out much slower than I thought it would. But it's still playing out.
Here's why I'm hanging onto the Apecoin in my imaginary paper trade account, and riding it out. I think we are dramatically overdue for a major correction in both stocks and crypto. I don't think $121,000 Bitcoin is the peak of this crypto cycle, but I think we're near the short term peak.
I believe we will see a major financial crash this year, that's already overdue. I think a huge ($5 to $10 TRILLION) bailout will follow, over the course of several many months, after a major correction, we will see a huge liquidity wave, which will send stocks and crypto back up, gold and silver down. The now expected decline of interest rates over the next year is lining up with this idea, as is the massive slowing of real estate in the parts of the U.S. that boomed over the last several years. There's also the commercial real estate collapse (see my Simulpocalypse Series on Substack for more on that). Anyhow, when the bailout money surges into financial markets, probably in the spring of 2026, we will see a prolonged surge in crypto. I think in mid to late 2026, maybe early 2027, we will see $150,000 Bitcoin, and over time, huge rises in many other cryptos. That is the scenario I was betting on from the start.
My assessment may be completely wrong, of course. It's already running somewhat behind the timeline I had in mind, but I'm sticking with this overall assessment. So I don't care that I'm all in on Apecoin when it's at 60 cents a coin. This time next year, we'll know if my $10,000 Investment challenge was sound thinking or not.
Checking this today, I decided to write a post, even though it's down, and I'm making no changes, because I should show when things are not going well, as well as when they are going well.
