Nick Gerli, of Reventure Consulting, is a financial YouTuber I found last summer, looking for more info on wear real estate was heading. He's been calling things ahead of time, trend by trend, by looking at the actual real time data, and just using common sense. Which should be called "uncommon sense" since so few people seem to use it. This video explains where we are now, mid-April 2023, and where things appear to be heading, better than any of the 30 or 40 videos I've watched recently about the economy.
I've been blogging about "the next Great Recession" (or depression) since 2018-2019. Looking at obscure ultra long term trends that most people either have never heard of, or simply dismiss, it looked like we were heading for either a bigger Great Recession,or a full on Great Depression (a recession for 5+ years), starting in 2019-2020. The recession tried to begin in December of 2018, but The Fed dropped interest rates and calmed things down. Then the pandemic hit in 2020, tossing the economy off a cliff into the recession. But The Fed responded by creating $5 to $6 trillion in "helicopter money," throwing money at banks, Wall Street, corporate America, near bankrupt states, cities, and towns, and eventually to us lowly, average citizens. That was like buying 5 kegs of beer at 2 am at a high school or college party. "Hey! More beer (free money) keep the party going!" The new money propped things up from late 2020 into early 2022.
But that eventually caused inflation, which soared, finally forcing The Fed to raise interest rates faster then ever in history, to fight the inflation they caused with all the newly created money. Now a bunch of factors are pulling money out of the economy, and the financial roller coaster is headed back down into recession. A BIG recession. Nick explains the mess in this video above far better than I can. So just watch the video to get a good idea where things are headed economically this year.
No comments:
Post a Comment