Here's a really good look at where the bike industry is, as things slow down going into 2023. Recession? We're probably in one. Maybe. But this guy from Top to Bottom MTB channel does a really solid job of explaining the wild ride of the whole bike industry since the beginning of 2020, how it got to where it is today, and where things seems to be heading. It's a 7 minute video, well worth checking out if you ride any bike on a regular basis.
As a Generation X, middle-aged geezer now, I remember being part of the BMX/skate industry in early 1989. I was working at Unreel Productions, the video arm of the Vision Skateboards and Vision Street Wear empire. Yep, kids, "street wear" happened about 35 years ago. Anyhow, I was basically a production assistant at a company that sponsored skateboarders, snowboarders, and BMXers. I used my business card to get into the big bicycle industry trade show in Long Beach, in January of 1989. At that time, BMX freestyle had peaked in its first big wave of popularity, BMX racing was peaking in its 2nd big wave, and skateboarding was peaking in its 3rd wave of popularity.
As I walked around, I literally heard the same mantra over and over, in several booths, and in small talk between industry people. "BMX is DEAD! Mountain bikes are the new thing." I was a hardcore, if not that great, BMX freestyler, riding every night, just for the fun of it, at that point. I kept thinking, "What are all of you talking about? BMX IS NOT DEAD!" It wasn't dead to all the hardcore riders around the U.S., and some parts of the world. But it was dead to the major bike companies, and to the corporate sponsors form outside the sport. They declared BMX dead, and money drained away from the sport. The fad was over as far as they were concerned. Almost every BMX freestyle brand dropped their teams that summer. Top pro riders were left without sponsors. All of the hardcore riders, regardless of what level our riding was at, went, "What the fuck, dudes?"
The bad news was that it was really hard to get paid to ride a freestyle bike, even for many top pros. GT and Haro kept their teams going, and toured their guys all the time, to sell bikes where they could. This is what causes the waves (roughly ten year cycles) in BMX and skateboarding. The major bicycle corporations that ride fads pulled their money out, along with corporations that sponsor from outside the bike and skate industries. They are about profit only, and they ride the "fads" like surfers ride waves. When one wave is over, they're on to the next one. In 1989-1990, that meant money flowing out of BMX and skateboarding, and into the new things, mountain bikes (BMX bikes for "adults") snowboarding, and inline skating.
The good thing about these downturns in the waves, only the hardcore people are left, in the sport aspect, and in the indsutry. Vert skating was still ruling skateboarding in 1989, but street skating had been slowly rising in popularity. In the down years, the long economic recession of the early 1990's, World Industries rose up, sponsoring street skaters only. Many skater-owned companies popped up, like New Deal, Black Label, Blind, Birdhouse, Plan B, 101, and others. In the BMX world, S&M Bikes was just really getting going as the downturn hit. Soon after came Standard, Hoffman, Eastern, FBM, Kink, and other rider-owned companies. In both BMX and skateboarding, the riders and skaters took over their industries.
Riding and progression didn't slow down, it sped up. Contests became local events, the big glam events ended. The main sponsors of BMX and skateboarding in the early 1990's were ramen (23 cents a pack), Del Taco (49 cent tacos), Taco Bell (59 cent tacos), and in the Huntington Beach area, What-a-Lotta Pizza, with $4 cheese pizzas and $5 pepperoni pizzas. We ate so many of those pizzas at the P.O.W. House, that when no one ordered a pizza for three days, the manager of the local What-a-Lotta Pizza called us up to see if we were alright. Seriously, that actually happened. We promptly ordered 4 or 5 pizzas.
If you read my blog on any regular basis, you know I'm an amateur futurist, I write posts about economics, recessions, and shit like that. (Thank you to the 7 people who read each of those posts). I think we are now going into a Big World recession, and it will last a while. A lot of action sports companies will downsize, some good riders and skaters will lose sponsorships, some will get smaller deals, and some industry people will be laid off. This is already happening in the high tech world.
But these sports are like a fungus, they never really go away. They go underground. Events like Steve Crandall's DIY comps, and Trey Jones' Swampfest will probably be the norm for two or three years. All the sports will continue to evolve, and a lot of the idiots will wash out of these sports (sorry, not me, I keep blogging from way outside the industry). The people who really love action sports, athletes and industry people, will stick around. A lot of crazy ideas will be tried, and really cool new shit will emerge on multiple fronts. But you might have to get a day job. Or flip stuff on eBay to help survive. When you run out of food, ask one of us geezers who survived the 90's, we all have at least 7 different recipes for ramen meals, most that can be made for under a $1 each.
In a surfing metaphor, the big set of waves has passed, in the business world. Now we wait, and try new ideas using very little money. In a year or two, things pick up some, in 3-4 years, big money will probably flow back in, much more than before. That's a rough timeline, The Fed is pumping and dumping the economy these days, and they set the time schedule. Generally, every wave of these sports gets bigger than the last. Except inline skating, fruitbooting just kind of fizzled.
This is a BIG recession in the Big World, like nearly all of the world, the big shots who run political parts of the world, and the financial world, are battling it out, and all of us regular people get sloshed around in the meantime. The world will look quite a bit different in 5 years. Those of you who try out new ideas, and build some good new shit, will be rewarded down the road, most likely. All of these sports are much, MUCH larger than they were in the 1990's, so BMX, skateboarding, and other action sports can't totally die, like they nearly did back then. But things are slowing down. This happens about once a decade. Now is when it gets fun. Learn to live cheap, and think about where you would like to see things at in 5 years. Then do some DIYing and make something cool happen. Ride on!
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