There are a whole bunch of videos talking about Blackrock's application for a Bitcoin spot price ETF (Exchange Traded Fund). Crypto Casey's video, from July 2023, tells all the basics in 16 minutes, so it's a good place to start researching this potential move in Bitcoin, expected to play out over the next 1-2 years. Investing in crypto, like any investment, carries risks, so be smart, do your own due diligence, and talk to any need professionals before making any investment decisions.
Bitcoin, BTC, the crypto asset, the decentralized digital form of exchange, hosted on thousands of computers worldwide, began with a white paper published just over 15 years ago, by some mysterious person or group, who went by the name Satoshi Nakamoto. Satoshi's true identity remains unknown to this day. A link to a white paper describing the concept was released on October 31, 2008. The open source code network was created on January 3rd, 2009. Using the info in the white paper, people began "mining" Bitcoin almost immediately. You can dig into more details on the Bitcoin Wikipedia page, or watch the documentary The Rise and Rise of Bitcoin, or one or more of the other Bitcoin and crypto docs out there. In any case, in January 2009, reportedly inspired by the Great Recession of 2007-2009 (aka The GFC or Global Financial Crisis), the world's experiment with digital crypto currency and blockchain technology began. It was over 8 years until the strange digital "coin" hit a value of $1,000 U.S. per Bitcoin. As I write this in mid November 2023, Bitcoin is trading at $36,366 per Bitcoin. According to Google, the total market cap of all crypto is $1.44 trillion, with Bitcoin making up $708 billion of that. Obviously, a bunch of people see value in this digital blockchain technology and transaction system. There are now many other blockchains, and thousands of other crypto coins being traded online.
The point of this post is that we have the set-up for what appears to be another huge rise in the value of Bitcoin. This began slowly, a year ago, as Bitcoin rose from the low after the SBF debacle. The price is back up well over 100% from the low price in November of 2022, after the last big crypto crash and trough in prices. But now there's another big event coming that could help the price of Bitcoin surge much higher over the next several months, and into the next year or two.
Wall Street, and specifically the financial Goliath, Blackstone, has applied to create a spot price ETF for Bitcoin. They applied for it last June. A lot of other businesses have also applied. But Blackstone is the largest, most well connected, traditional financial player (trad-fi), and they've had over 500 ETF's approved, and only one denied. So the crypto world, and many others, expect Blackstone to eventually get approved to open that ETF.
What does that do? That ETF, exchange traded fund, will allow investors, particularly huge investment portfolios like pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, ultra high net worth individuals, and other major investors, get exposure to Bitcoin's volatile price action, while not having to actually buy Bitcoin itself. Basically, the Big Boys and Girls Club of investors around the world will be able to make money off of Bitcoin, without the risks of actually owning BTC, or any other crypto coin. It's a huge side bet arena, part of the traditional financial system, that would be as easy to invest in as stocks on a Robinhood account. It would open the crypto environment up to hundreds of billions, perhaps trillions, of dollars of investment in a traditional investment vehicle, an ETF, but also be able to profit when Bitcoin goes up in price. The consensus view is that the Blackstone ETF, or perhaps a series of Bitcoin spot price ETF's, beginning with Blackstone's, would make Bitcoin itself much more valuable.
In March of 2017, Bitcoin was under $1,000 per Bitcoin. In December of 2017, the price rose to $19,650 per Bitcoin. That's a rise of 2038% in one year, a 20X return, if sold at the peak. Then Bitcoin, and other cryptos, crashed. In December of 2018, the price got down around $3183 per Bitcoin. In November of 2021, it peaked again at around $64,400 per Bitcoin. That rise, trough to peak, was 2023%, another 20X rise. Then crypto prices, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and all the alt coins or shit coins, crashed again. This last low was around $16, 452 per Bitcoin, in November of 2022. I'm saying "around" for the prices because I'm using the Google chart to simplify things, which is weekly numbers, and not the absolute, intraday lows or highs.
The crypto world, looking at the likelihood of the Blackrock ETF actually happening, sees the next big price spike for Bitcoin likely going to at least $100,000 to maybe $150,000 per Bitcoin, at some point in the next couple of years. That's nearly a 10X rise in price, from the 2022 low. If Bitcoin does another 20X peak trough to peak rise, that would put the next peak price at roughly $320,000 per Bitcoin. That's the extreme high side of the next potential peak, driven in large part by the continued adoption of crypto, as well as the Blackstone ETF, and possible other Bitcoin ETF's, getting approved. The Blackstone ETF potential approval dates are January 12-14th, 2024, and I think March 13-14th, 2024.
But wait, there's more! The next Bitcoin halving is predicted to take place around April 20th, 2024. The "halving" is programmed into the Bitcoin code. Once every four years, the amount of Bitcoin that Bitcoin miners earn for mining it, gets cut in half. This generally leads to the price rising as well, in time. The last two halvings, the price went down a bit at first, then recovered, and grew, a few months later. In 2020, the price went much higher in a few months, but Bitcoin popularity was also growing a lot then. In any case, miners get paid less Bitcoin to mine it, beginning next April 2024, which tends to make Bitcoin more valuable, overall. So there's a one-two punch set to push the price of Bitcoin higher next spring, the very likely Blackstone ETF approval, and the baked in Bitcoin halving.
Last month, the news broke that the Blackrock ETF got approved, and the price of Bitcoin took off immediately. Within a day, the news broke that it was a false announcement, based on an intern's mistake. Sure blame the interns. In any case, even though everyone realized the ETF did not get approved, the mistaken news leak sent the price of Bitcoin from around $26,800, to over $28,000 in ten days, and it has drifted higher since, and it now well over $36,000 per Bitcoin, after hitting #37,000 recently. Ethereum and many other crypto coins have risen as well, sparked by Bitcoin's rise.
Many traditional investors are now really happy to "T-bill and chill," after the 2022-2023 chaos in stocks, buying U.S. treasury bills that pay 5% to 5.5% annually on their money. But over in cryptoland, there's this opportunity to ride the Bitcoin train up for the next several months, maybe for 1-2 years. this opportunity exists because of increasing overall adoption, because of the effect the nearly certain approval of the Blackstone spot price Bitcoin ETF, and the Bitcoin halving, are expected to have on Bitcoin's price in the next 6 to 12 months, or more. So that's the opportunity sitting out there right now, for any of you interested in investing in Bitcoin.
Crypto is not as easy to invest in as stocks, U.S. treasuries, or something like gold or or silver. It's volatile, the price swings day to day can be several percent. You have to do quite a bit of research, if you're not already familiar, on how to safely buy crypto, then how to hold it safely in a hard wallet. If this interests you, then dive into the research about this potential opportunity. There are a lot of videos about the aspects of Bitcoin, the Blackstone ETF, and many opinions on how this might play out. As I said above, Crypto Casey's video embedded above is a great place to start. If the ETF does happen, and Bitcoin rises steadily in price for a while, that generally drags up the price of Ethereum, the other major cryptos, and many of the alt coins (or shit coins) as well. Do the due diligence needed before investing any money in any of these. Be smart and be safe.
If this whole idea makes sense, how do you play it? Buy Bitcoin, or even Ethereum, and hold it through at least next April. The real rise should come in the months after April. Don't expect it to soar straight up in price, but make a bumpy, upward trend over time. If this is the next big cycle in crypto, as it appears to be, then Bitcoin, and many other cryptos, could rise substantially over the next 1 1/2 to 2 years. It's a buy and hold, mid term play, for several months, up to maybe 2 years. You decide when to sell some or all of your crypto, and take profits, if this long move plays out more or less as expected.
If you don't know how to safely buy and store crypto, then take the time to do the proper research on how to buy crypto safely, and learn about hard wallets, and how to store your crypto safely.
Again, this is a potential opportunity that seems to be shaping up, where the ETF approval and the halving will help push the price of Bitcoin up, over several months. No one is obligated to buy any crypto because you read this post. If this post sparks your interest, do the needed research, and see if this potential opportunity makes sense for you. As this is playing out, it looks like we're heading into a recession, so expect much of the rest of the economy to be slow as we see just how the Bitcoin story plays out in the next year or two.
I'm sharing this information because I see this huge potential investment hanging out there, at a time when economic growth around the world is slowing down, some countries are already in recession, and others, including the U.S., are either heading into, or will soon head into, a recession. There are no paid links in this post, I don't make any money off of writing this in any way, whether you do or don't buy Bitcoin or other cryptos. I'm just sharing the potential opportunity with those of you who read my blog, hoping it may help some of you, if it makes sense to you, and if this opportunity plays out close to how its expected to play out.
Thanks for reading, and stay tuned, there's more to come. Hit me with any comments or ideas on Facebook.
Blogger's note- 11/16/2023- BlockRock just filed with the SEC to open an Ethereum ETF, to go along with the Bitcoin ETF that I wrote about above. Here's the CNBC report on this. So add Ethereum, the #2 crypto, and the first to incorporate smart contracts, to the ideas lined out above concerning Bitcoin.
I've also been doing a lot of longer form writing on Substack, a platform designed specifically for writers, lately. There I'm writing mostly about creativity, creative scenes, art, writing, and a little economic stuff. Check it out.
There are no paid links in this post.
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