Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Value: The case for owning silver (or gold) right now

This is my dad, Tom Emig, in 1964, leaning against his powder blue, 1957, Ford Thunderbird. 

My dad was a total car guy, back in the days when you could buy and sell cool cars pretty easily.  He owned three T-birds, this was his third.  For those of you not familiar, the Ford T-birds, the 1955-57 models, were some of the coolest cars ever created.  My dad met my mom when he was driving this one, and they got married right around the time this photo was taken.

At the time of this photo, my dad could drive this T-bird down to the gas station, and with a quarter, he could get a gallon of gas.  Hey, it was 1964, gas was cheap, right?  I'm writing this on March 18, 2020, and we're in the early stages of a widespread economic meltdown, as well as a pandemic from a crazy virus from China.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index has dropped over 9,000 points in about a month, down from 29,551 to 19,898 today.  The world is crazy.  People are freaking out on many levels.  Nobody knows what to invest in, those that still have money.

Here's the thing, I could take that same quarter from 1964,the quarter that my dad could have bought a gallon of gas with, and I could sell that dinged up 1964 quarter at a coin shop for $3-$3.50 right now.  That 1964 quarter WILL STILL buy a gallon of gas in most of the United States, 56 years after that quarter was minted, 56 years after that photo of my dad and his T-bird above.  Here in California, we have a special blend of glass to help keep the air cleaner (supposedly), and gas is over $4 a gallon.  But that 1964 quarter will still buy most of a gallon of gas.

Why is that?  The reason is that U.S. quarters (and dimes) minted in 1964 or before, were made form 90% silver.  Silver, like gold, is a precious metal.  It's still used in making coins some places, as it has been throughout human history.  In addition, some people hold silver as an investment, like they do with gold.  Silver is used in jewelry, and A LOT of silver is used in industry, particularly for soldering and electrical connections in cell phones, and all kinds of other electronic devices.  So silver, unlike stocks, bonds, and other paper assets, is always worth something.  Silver has intrinsic value.  "Paper assets," like stock shares, can go to zero, and become completely worthless.  But precious metals are always worth something.  The same is true of gold, though gold is widely considered far more valuable, because gold never tarnishes, and is believed to be far more rare.

The value of paper money, when it's not backed by gold, can fluctuate wildly.  This is called "fiat money," and eventually, all fiat money winds up worthless.  Every type of fiat money in human history eventually became completely worthless.  But precious metals, like gold and silver, are always worth something, even though the prices goes up and down.  The small amount of silver in a U.S. quarter would buy a gallon of gas in 1964, and will still buy a gallon of gas in most places in the U.S. today.  You can check it out on this silver coin price page.

The silver price per ounce (troy ounce, more than our regular ounce) has dropped to about $12 an ounce, over the last few days.  It was hovering around $16-$18 a troy ounce for about six years, before that.  In the 1960's, silver was about $1.30 an ounce, and a gallon of milk was about 95 cents.  So a troy ounce of silver would buy you about 1 1/2 gallons of milk.  In the late 60's, silver rose to about $2.50 an ounce, or 2 1/2 gallons of milk.  Now, 55 years later, after all kinds of changes in the world, a gallon of milk costs about $3.50, and an a troy ounce of silver will buy you 3 1/2 gallons of milk.  Milk is subsidized, so the price would be higher in a free market. The ounce of silver will buy roughly the same amount of a standard item over along period of time.  As the value of dollars (or any fiat money) goes down, silver and gold, by and large, hold heir value. This is particularly why you hear of people buying gold, or silver, in times of crisis.  The really smart investors actually load up on silver and gold before a crisis, when the prices are usually cheaper.

My point here is that we are in REALLY crazy economic times, and one of the best things to own during a crisis, for average people (and smart investors) is silver and gold.  Gold has gone up quite a bit over the last couple of years, and is $1492 a troy ounce right now.  Most people would have trouble setting aside $1500 to buy one ounce of gold right now.  But a one troy ounce Silver Eagle coin, a standard coin for saving silver, is $12 an ounce, and you'll pay a premium of about $2 to buy one.  Just about anybody, like you, can afford to buy an ounce (or several) of silver to set aside.  Over time, silver holds its value well, whether the value of dollars (or euros, kronor, yen, pounds, etc) goes up or down.

I'm not a financial advisor, I can't tell you what to invest in, or what not to invest in.  My point in this post is to point out that silver and gold hold their value over time, and there's a really good reason a lot of people buy silver and gold in times of crisis, like right now.  So now you know why, and this may be an option you want to think about while things are so crazy in our world, economically, and otherwise, right now.

You can buy silver bullion in bars, 1 ounce, 5 ounces, or 10 ounces, or in 1 ounce coins. But these days, the U.S. 1 ounce Silver Eagle is one of the most common.  You can buy them in a coin shop, or online, if you're interested.  The Silver Eagles are well known, and easy to sell down the line, if you want or need to sell them.  



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