Wednesday, June 5, 2019

Retail Apocalypse: 20,813 retail stores closed or planned to close, in the last 2 1/2 years

According to this CNBC article (June 5, 2019), discount stores like Costco, Walmart, and Target are doing well, while 7,150 retail store closings have already been announced for 2019, to add to the 5,524 in 2018, and 8,139 in 2017.  That's 20,813 stores already shuttered or planned to this year.  I've heard much higher numbers from 2017-18, so I think this just counts major national chain department and  retail stores, but it isn't clear in the article.  In addition to these 20,000+ closings, there were at least 5,000 to 10,000 more closings in 2010-2016. 

Multiple sources over the last 2 or 3 years have reported that 400 of the 1,100 to 1,200 shopping malls in the U.S. were expected to close between about 2016 and 2021 or so.  Some have closed, I haven't heard an exact number, but probably a few dozen in the past ten years.  The website Dead Malls.com has stories and reports from many still open dead malls, which means they're either closed, or below 70% occupancy.

My thinking is that this is the collapse of the Industrial Age distribution system, as the Information age distribution system takes over, like Amazon, Ebay, tens of thousands of small online stores, and online sales/in store distribution through major stores like Walmart and Target.  I call this decades long transition from the Industrial Age to the Information Age "The Big Transition." Here's my latest blog post explaining this idea. 

At least 25,000 to 30,000 stores closed this decade, and we haven't hit a recession... yet.

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