When I was a kid, we were taught this was a likely future, by movies, TV shows, the news, and drills at school where we had to hide under our desks. Like a cheesy school desk would protect us from a nuke. The Soviet Union would launch its nuclear missiles, the U.S. would launch ours, and most people would be toast a couple hours later. There was a sense we might wind up living in a scenario like that in this Damnation Alley trailer, from 1977. That cool vehicle in the movie, the Landmaster, was parked at the top of Cahuenga Boulevard, above Hollywood, for years. I used to drive by it pretty often when working up here. It'd make a hell of an RV.
Homeless people, like me, everywhere. But we have devices that can send voice, photos, and video to half of the other humans on Earth. In parts of the country, people will openly carry an AR-15 into Starbucks to get a coffee, while mass shootings happen with regularity other places. We're coming out of a 100 year pandemic, and prices are soaring on housing, gas, and most everyday items. A couple days ago, one of the biggest movie stars got up at the Oscar's, and bitch slapped the comedian/host, on live TV, because his wife didn't like a joke. What the hell is going on?
I've written a lot on where I think human society is heading, based on a theory of mine that piggybacks on a couple other theories. It's complex, but here are the basic ideas I see playing out, in a nutshell.
My Theories:
The Big Freakin' Transition- I believe we are in an 80-90 year transition period BETWEEN the Industrial Age, and the Information Age. Some businesses, industries and institutions have mostly made the transition to the Information Age, and a lot have not. Many parts of our world are using a lot of modern technology, but still working from old ideas, old paradigms, and Industrial Age systems and processes. This creates a ton of chaos, because everyone's way of life is changing in multiple ways, on multiple fronts, all the time. It hard for anyone to take a breath and relax very long, because more change just keeps coming. More on this, The Big Freakin' Transition, here. This theory is a continuation of The Third Wave* concept, authored by futurist Alvin Toffler, in 1980. For those of you more visually oriented, I have a Pinterest board on this subject, showing photos of this transition over time, for different things. Start at the bottom and work up.
The Tumultuous 2020's- This is my name for this decade, because I believe the pace of change, both in The Big Freakin' Transition, and the change of dominant mentality predicted by P.R. Sarkar's Law of Social Cycle (see below), are peaking during this calendar decade. That means massive change on pretty much every front, over many years. As humans, we don't like change. We say we do, but we really don't. Have your partner, kids, or roommate change the drawers in your dresser, and see how you react to a small change. Right now, we are all dealing with many small and big changes. It's a stressful time for nearly everyone.
The Phoenix Great Depression- This is my name for the economic aspect of this crazy period of transition. Basically, we are in a period of major economic and workplace change, much like the Great Depression of the 1930's, but with even more types of social change going on. This period of economic turbulence and change started with the Repo Market Crisis in late September of 2019, and will continue until, at least, late 2026.
The economic downturn in the Spring of 2020 was, officially, a depression, not a recession. (A 33% drop in GDP, a 10% drop is a definition of a financial depression). Unlike the 1930's, The Federal Reserve created about 30% more U.S. dollars, vastly increasing the total money in the U.S., and the world. Other central banks in major countries did the same. That helped us through the Covid crash, but the result of all that newly created money is the high inflation we are seeing now, and will continue to see for a while.
Our financial system uses a ton of new technology, but the basic structure of the banking system goes back to the Medici era in the 1400's. In the coming years, we will transition into some financial system more in tune with today's technology, and our social habits based on how we all use today's tech. But in the meantime, it's another area of lots of change and chaos.
My geeky side looks at things very long term, and there are cycles and trends that can help us figure out where things in society are headed. This is stuff I geek out on, and have been reading and learning about for over 30 years now. That gives me a much different perspective on what's happening now, and where our world is headed, then most people.
So those are my main names for the chaotic period we are in as a society. I have a 20 chapter book/blog thing called Welcome to Dystopia: The Future is Now, written between October 2019 and May 2020, that goes much deeper into these ideas, as well as separate blog posts.
For more info on Alvin and Heidi Toffler's concept of The Third Wave, check out this interview, from 2007. Alvin Toffler died in 2016, after writing and speaking about the future for over 35 years.
P.R. Sarkar's Law of Social Cycle is from India, and I heard about it from the book The Great Depression of 1990, by Ravi Batra. He basically says that there are 4 mentalities in a society. The Intellectuals, The Acquisitors (landlords. large business owners), the Laborers, and the Warriors. At any given time, one mentality dominates and shapes a society, usually for decades, often hundreds of years. According to Batra's analysis of the U.S., using Sarkar's concept, we are in a period at the end of the Acquisitor Age (businessman's mentality is leading to mass corruption, and lower living standards for workers), when the Laborers rise up in several populist waves of revolt, and eventually the Warrior mentality takes over. It's really complex, You can find the basic info here.
I also am a huge fan of Richard Florida's concept of The Creative Class, which I believe explains much of the change in technology, the clustering of tech businesses in a few areas, and the changing world of work in general.
When I write about economic stuff, or things I see happening in coming months or years, I'm drawing mostly on these concepts and ideas, to give me a sort of road map of where society is headed.
* Not a paid link.
I have a new blog out, check it out:
The Spot Finder #thespotfinder
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