Creative Scenes: Where progress comes from

To be fair, this little group is an outlier, one of the most influential creative scenes in human history.  They were much more influential than most Creative Scenes.  But that wasn't apparent in the beginning, which is the point.  The Homebrew Club, including it's best known members Steve Wozniak and Steve Jobs, created personal computers.  Wozniak and Jobs founded Apple Computers, now Apple, which brought us the Macintosh, iPods, and iPhones, among many other innovations.  A small group of creative people, a "creative scene," can have all kinds of effects, and even change the course of human history.

They were geeks when that was something everyone did not want to be.  But they found themselves fascinated by eletronics, and the emerging technology of computers.  Here's an interview from about 2004, with six early members of the 1975 Homebrew Club, in Menlo Park, California, including Steve Wozniak.  These six geeks from the 1970's, and the others from their scene, changed the lives of nearly every single on earth.  For real.  That's how major of an effect a small creative scene can potentially have.

What is a "Creative Scene?"  My definition of a Creative Scene is a group of two or more people, focused on advancing in some creative endeavor.  Two kids in the back of a 3rd grade class trying to draw better airplanes than each other is a Creative Scene.  A group of artists at a small indie gallery is a Creative Scene.  The kids and staff working on a high school yearbook is a creative scene.  A band, no matter how good or bad, is a creative scene.  The kids riding skateboards, BMX bikes, and yes, even scooters,* at a skatepark, is a creative scene.  Two women making Aunt Agnes' gooseberry jelly and selling it online, is a creative scene.  Travis Patrana and the Nitro Circus lunatics is a Creative Scene.  Todd McFarlane and the original posse that started Image Comics were a creative scene.  Three 9-year-old girls in the front yard making up dance moves, is a Creative Scene.  Amanda Palmer and whomever she's hanging out with at this moment, is a Creative Scene.  One time Old School BMX freestyler Chris Lashua and his Cirque Mechnic is a Creative Scene.  A blog or YouTube channel's creator(s) and their followers, are a creative scene.  CBGB's in the 1970's, and later, was a creative scene.  The group of Montreal street performers that created Cirque du Soleil, was a Creative Scene.  The people riding BMX and mountain bikes at Sheep Hills today, is a creative scene.  Gary Vaynerchuk and the people at VaynerMedia is a creative scene.  Tyler Perry's movie studio in Atlanta is a Creative Scene.  Yuga Labs, a hanfdul of artistic, former punk and hip hop influenced skateboarders and BMXers from Miami, that created the Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT's, and the Otherside metaverse, is a Creative Scene.  And yes, Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak, in their garage, Woz's cubicle, and Steve's bedroom, in 1975, were a Creative Scene... on that birthed Apple.  You get the idea.  

We all have some idea what an art scene or a music scene is.  They are not only the artists or the bands, but the local gallery owners, the patrons who buy pieces of work or go see shows, the local arts organizations that plan the First Friday Art Walk, the local bars and clubs where bands play, and all the people playing roles who support these people and the scenes.  Those are the best known kind of Creative Scenes.  

There are scenes within scenes.  There are better and worse scenes.  Most Creative Scenes don't have any major influence, except to help people become more creative, and learn skills, either creative, ogranizational, or business-wise.  A healthy creative environment, let's say a thriving city's creative community, has dozens, maybe hundreds, of loosely interconnected scenes, with many types of people playing roles in multiple scenes, moving between scenes, and bouncing off of, and inspiring each other.  This type or creative environment separates a city like Austin, Texas from say Detroit, Michigan.  Both have creative scenes, Detroit has been huge force in music from Motown to rock n' roll to early electronic music.  But it's been devastated economically, and continues ot struggle as a city.  Austin is peaking as a Creative Scene city, and currently thriving financially as a major tech hub city, where economic and creative Detroit's heydays were decades ago.  But the cheap cost of living and post apocalyptic scenes of Detroit may set the seeds for more great Creative Scenes in the future.  Time will tell.  

This theme, Creative Scenes, is something I've been learning about since the 1980's, as a BMX freestyler, and ever since, through many creative projects, jobs, and experiences.  I even lived in an indie art gallery once, back in 2005-6.  That's where my Sharpie Scribble Style art technique was born.  

Right now, in late 2022, I believe we are on the cusp of some of the biggest changes in society in modern times, which will take place over several years.  Creative Scenes is where I'm going to focus my energy for the forseeable future.  I've got a lot to say on the subject, so it's time to get to work.  Buckle up, it's gonna be a crazy ride.  

*As an Old School BMX guy, I love to make fun of scooter riders.  And then R Willy came along...  Damn him.

Welcome to Dystopia: The Future is Now- My look forward into the Tumultuous 2020's

What will "the future" look like?  Here are Lori Petty and friend, from the intro of Tank Girl, which came out in 1995.  The movie is set in 2033, just over ten years from now.  I'd say we have about a 50/50 chance of this future, at this point.  Here's the trailer for the Tank Girl movie, just in case you somehow missed it.  This post is about the 20 chapter look at our future, that I wrote 2 1/2 to 3 years ago, called Welcome to Dystopia: The Future is Now.  I'm going back and reading it, chapter by chapter, to see how it's holding up.  Let's do it.  

As I wrote in the last post, I woke up one morning in October 2019, with this big idea for a writing project.  That project would bring out a whole bunch of nebulous, somewhat connected ideas, that were bouncing around my brain.  These ideas were based on three big theories that I had come across, 10 to 30 years earlier, and what I saw playing out in the real world, in the late 2000's and 2010's.  That project turned into Dystopia, as I now call it in shorthand.  

I started writing this group of ideas on paper, in late October 2019, before Covid-19 sprang up in China.  I was writing about a major period of economic chaos, 3 to 5 years long, likely more that I saw coming in our future.  By the time I finished writing the 20th chapter, in early June 2020, Covid had hit the U.S., and the rest of the world.  The stock markets had crashed, mandatory business closures and lockdowns were in effect, and 25 million people were laid off, working from home, or out of work for an unknown period of time.  

So... uh... yeah, I called the chaos part pretty well.  To be clear, I DID NOT see the pandemic coming.  But I expected some "black swan" event to lead us into economic chaos.  Covid became the first black swan.  Actually, because of the pandemic, things got way crazier, much faster than I thought they would.  When I finished writing Dystopia, in June 2020, we still thought the pandemic would probably be over by late summer 2020.  We still had no idea how bad things would get.  

As I'm writing this post, just before Thanksgiving 2022, I think we are now headed into the worst couple of years of this decade, 2023-2024.  The Fed stepped in and created about $6 trillion to help everyone through the pandemic, particularly the banking system and corporate America.  All that money kept the real, underlying economic issues from hitting bottom, and being dealt with.  Ultimately, that money caused our current inflation.  So now we're headed into the "real" recession, and it's going to get ugly.  Er.  Uglier.    

Welcome to Dystopia: The Future is Now (Book 1) is completely new ideas to most people, though the theories have been around quite a while, and it's a hard read for most.  But I still think I got the underlying Big Picture of why the 2020's will continue to be so crazy, pretty well explained.  If you read any of these chapters, let me know what you think on Facebook (Steve Emig- North Hollywood) or Twitter (@steveemig43).  Here  are links to the individual chapters:

Dystopia: Chapter 1- "We are the mutants"

Intro to the idea that several long term trends are converging, which will lead to a long, crazy, economic downturn, and much chaos, in the 2020's.  Also, because pretty much all of us were raised in "civilization" as opposed to some indigenous culture, we really don't understand the environment, and everyday destruction of the natural world is simply normal to us.  But ultimately, it's unsustainable in the long term.  In this way, we are "mutants" on Earth.

Dystopia: Chapter 2- "The Future the Media Shows You is not the Future You Get"

In the short chapter 2, I tell how I woke up with the idea to go back and watch a bunch of dystopian moive trailers from my childhood and teenage years.  I also discovered that I was writing this project in the exact setting and time, Los Angeles, November 2019, that the 1982 movie Blade Runner was set in.  I realized I was living in my high school self's future.  So I had a real world comparison, of the Blade Runner vision of Los Angeles in 2019, and the real thing, that I was living in.    

Dystopia: Chapter 3- "Where the Hell is My Flying Car?"

In the 1970's, it seemed like we would all have flying cars, like the ones used in Blade Runner, in the 21st century.  OK, technically, flying cars do exist, there have been many variations, going back 80 years.  But the cool movie type hover cars are not available.  The Moller Air Car, which never made it past a hovering prototype, is the closest real world version to that idea.  In addition, I link the 35 movie trailers I looked at, to gauge what 20 century writers thought "the future" would be like.  They were mostly wrong.  

Dystopia: Chapter 4- "Did the Futuristic Movies and TV Shows of My Generation X Childhood Get Anything Right?"

Of all the great minds who wrote about "the future" in the 20 th century, it was an early 1960's cartoon that got more things right about the future, than all the novels and movies.  And yes, George Orwell was right in 1984 about the Big Brother state with surveillance everywhere.  But there was something, just as powerful, that Orwell didn't see coming.  

Dystopia: Chapter 5- "Was There Anyone in the 20th Century Who Did Get "The Future" Right?"

This chapter takes a look at the husband and wife futurist team of Alvin and Heidi Toffler.  Alvin wrote the books, though he mentions often in interviews that he and Heidi worked together thinking concepts through.  I write about his first major book, Future Shock, published in 1970, and The Third Wave, published in 1980.  Even three years after is 2016 death, much of what they forecast came true, and some is still playing out in today's world.  

Dystopia: Chapter 6- "Why Care About the Future?"

Why do people watch weather reports?  We watch weather forecasts to get an idea of what is coming our way in a few hours, or maybe a few days.  By watching a weather report, we get an idea of whether we need ot take different action.  If we see rain in the forecast, we can take an umbrella or a raincoat when we go out, and maybe put boots on.  If it's going to snow in a couple of days, we know we need to get up early to shovel some snow, and warm up the car before going to work.  Reading books or watching videos by futurists is the same idea, their forecasts give you a look at what's coming.  Then you can make better decisions, taking their information into account, if it makes sense to you.  

Dystopia: Chapter 7- "The Power of Creative Scenes- (What I Did Instead of College)"

In high school, I got into the brand new little sport of BMX freestyle.  Doing tricks on "little kid's bikes," that's how most people saw freestyle in 1984-85.  It was dumb, it wouldn't go anywhere.  That's what I was told.  Instead, I was drawn into what I later realized were "creative scenes," small groups of creatively driven people trying something new.  I spent my late teen years and 20's in a series of creative scenes.  This post explains the idea, and shows a 1986 video of several of us riding in San Francisco, and what some of that group went on to do in the years since.  

Dystopia: Chapter 8- "How I Became an Amateur Futurist"

In the BMX freestyle world I first noticed scenes of riders here and there.  This led to my interest in Creative Scenes, and how ideas and movements spread through society.  In addition to that, my high school economics class, the SoCal real estate market of the late 1980's, and a book predicting a great depression, all fueled my interest in economics, social dynamics, how trends interplay with each other, and trying to figure out "The Future."  

Dystopia: Chapter 9- "The 'Bladerunner' future, and the future we actually got"

Our real world in Los Angeles in November of 2019 was much different than this setting that director Ridley Scott predicted back in 1982 in the movie Bladerunner.  We don't have flying cars, the streamlined design buildings, or high caliber androids called replicants.  We do have 30,000 homeless people, 10 million people (not 120 million), the internet, smartphones, and the Kardashians.  Of all the TV shows and movies about the future in the 1950's, 1960's, 1970's, and early 1980's, The Jetsons cartoons from 1962-63 actually did a better job predicting the technology we have now.  I explain that there are three big theories that I think really help explain the world of the 2020's, and lead into the next chapter.  

Dystopia: Chapter 10- "The Tofflers' Third Wave"

In this chapter I introduce the first of the three big theories that I think help explain where we are in the course of history, and why the world seems so chaotic.  I go back to the late futurist Alvin Toffler, and his wife Heidi, who brainstormed as a team.  Alvin wrote the books explaining their ideas, and published The Third Wave, in 1980.  I explain the first two waves of civilization they saw, and the long periods of time it took for each wave of change to sweep over human society, when they happened.  The Third Wave is the transition from the Industrial Age to a new, Information Age.  Not only is this transition still happening, but it's happening far faster than the earlier waves of change happened.  I believe that understanding that this idea is still at work in our society helps people understand our chaotic current chaotic.  It really helps set the stage for why the 2020's, in particular, will see more change than any previous decade.  

Why the world seems so crazy: my ideas

When I was a kid, we were taught this was a likely future, by movies, TV shows, the news, and drills at school where we had to hide under our desks.  Like a cheesy school desk would protect us from a nuke.  The Soviet Union would launch its nuclear missiles, the U.S. would launch ours, and most people would be toast a couple hours later.  There was a sense we might wind up living in a scenario like that in this Damnation Alley trailer, from 1977.  That cool vehicle in the movie, the Landmaster, was parked at the top of Cahuenga Boulevard, above Hollywood, for years.  I used to drive by it pretty often when working up here.  It'd make a hell of an RV.  

Homeless people, like me, everywhere.  But we have devices that can send voice, photos, and video to half of the other humans on Earth.  In parts of the country, people will openly carry an AR-15 into Starbucks to get a coffee, while mass shootings happen with regularity other places.  We're coming out of  a 100 year pandemic, and prices are soaring on housing, gas, and most everyday items.  A couple days ago, one of the biggest movie stars got up at the Oscar's, and bitch slapped the comedian/host, on live TV, because his wife didn't like a joke.  What the hell is going on?  

I've written a lot on where I think human society is heading, based on a theory of mine that piggybacks on a couple other theories.  It's complex, but here are the basic ideas I see playing out, in a nutshell.  

My Theories:

The Big Freakin' Transition- I believe we are in an 80-90 year transition period BETWEEN the Industrial Age, and the Information Age.  Some businesses, industries and institutions have mostly made the transition to the Information Age, and a lot have not.  Many parts of our world are using a lot of modern technology, but still working from old ideas, old paradigms, and Industrial Age systems and processes.  This creates a ton of chaos, because everyone's way of life is changing in multiple ways, on multiple fronts, all the time.    It hard for anyone to take a breath and relax very long, because more change just keeps coming.  More on this, The Big Freakin' Transition, here.  This theory is a continuation of The Third Wave* concept, authored by futurist Alvin Toffler, in 1980.  For those of you more visually oriented, I have a Pinterest board on this subject, showing photos of this transition over time, for different things.  Start at the bottom and work up.

The Tumultuous 2020's- This is my name for this decade, because I believe the pace of change, both in The Big Freakin' Transition, and the change of dominant mentality predicted by P.R. Sarkar's Law of Social Cycle (see below), are peaking during this calendar decade.  That means massive change on pretty much every front, over many years.  As humans, we don't like change.  We say we do, but we really don't.  Have your partner, kids, or roommate change the drawers in your dresser, and see how you react to a small change.  Right now, we are all dealing with many small and big changes.  It's a stressful time for nearly everyone.

The Phoenix Great Depression- This is my name for the economic aspect of this crazy period of transition.  Basically, we are in a period of major economic and workplace change, much like the Great Depression of the 1930's, but with even more types of social change going on.  This period of economic turbulence and change started with the Repo Market Crisis in late September of 2019, and will continue until, at least, late 2026.  

The economic downturn in the Spring of 2020 was, officially, a depression, not a recession.  (A 33% drop in GDP, a 10% drop is a definition of a financial depression).  Unlike the 1930's, The Federal Reserve created about 30% more U.S. dollars, vastly increasing the total money in the U.S., and the world.  Other central banks in major countries did the same.  That helped us through the Covid crash, but the result of all that newly created money is the high inflation we are seeing now, and will continue to see for a while.  

Our financial system uses a ton of new technology, but the basic structure of the banking system goes back to the Medici era in the 1400's.  In the coming years, we will transition into some financial system more in tune with today's technology, and our social habits based on how we all use today's tech.  But in the meantime, it's another area of lots of change and chaos.   

My geeky side looks at things very long term, and there are cycles and trends that can help us figure out where things in society are headed.  This is stuff I geek out on, and have been reading and learning about for over 30 years now.  That gives me a much different perspective on what's happening now, and where our world is headed, then most people.  

So those are my main names for the chaotic period we are in as a society.  I have a 20 chapter book/blog thing called Welcome to Dystopia: The Future is Now, written between October 2019 and May 2020, that goes much deeper into these ideas, as well as separate blog posts.  

For more info on Alvin and Heidi Toffler's concept of The Third Wave, check out this interview, from 2007.  Alvin Toffler died in 2016, after writing and speaking about the future for over 35 years.  

P.R. Sarkar's Law of Social Cycle is from India, and I heard about it from the book The Great Depression of 1990, by Ravi Batra.  He basically says that there are 4 mentalities in a society.  The Intellectuals, The Acquisitors (landlords. large business owners), the Laborers, and the Warriors.  At any given time, one mentality dominates and shapes a society, usually for decades, often hundreds of years.  According to Batra's analysis of the U.S., using Sarkar's concept, we are in a period at the end of the Acquisitor Age (businessman's mentality is leading to mass corruption, and lower living standards for workers), when the Laborers rise up in several populist waves of revolt, and eventually the Warrior mentality takes over.  It's really complex,  You can find the basic info here.

I also am a huge fan of Richard Florida's concept of The Creative Class, which I believe explains much of the change in technology, the clustering of tech businesses in a few areas, and the changing world of work in general.

When I write about economic stuff, or things I see happening in coming months or years, I'm drawing mostly on these concepts and ideas, to give me a sort of road map of where society is headed.  

* Not a paid link.

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