Just about everyone, individuals, businesses, and governments, have way to much debt today, more than ever in history. In this video, Joe from Heresy Financial YouTube channel gives a lot of great advice on how to get out of debt, as quickly as possible. This is one of the best things Americans can focus on right now, heading into a major recession.
My best educated guess now is that we see the coming stock crash in September. That will lead to big downturns in asset prices, and the visible stock crash is when most everyday people finally look up and say, "Oh crap, I think we're in a recession." That's when it gets real, for the vast majority of people. That's when home prices begin to drop in more cities, and that's when a lot more layoffs happen, outside the tech world. Again, this is my educated guess, but as you'll read below, I've been writing about this recession for about four years now. It's coming at us, but it's been slow, like a glacier. Slow but sure, but it'll get here.
Some of you, who have been following my blogs for years, know that I've been harping on about this "big recession that's coming," since early 2019, maybe earlier. Why? Because it is a part of some ultra long term, and mid term, cycles that I've been watching, for 30 years. I won't go into all the details, I've written about them many times online (Welcome to Dystopia: The Future is Now). I've been writing about this for so long because multiple trends and cycles point to a major recession, or possibly a depression, in 2020, or in the years after soon after. That recession will also usher in all kinds of other changes already happening in our world. The main one is that we are still leaving the old, Industrial Age, and still moving into the emerging Information Age. But we're not fully there yet.
Now I know most people have been hearing people talk about a possible recession for a year or more. It's getting old. But there's a big difference between 2023 and 2007, leading into the Great Recession. For one, YouTube is now mainstream, and social media has allowed people to connect more than ever in human history. There are a lot of really intelligent people in macro economics on YouTube, giving their own take on what's happening, and where things are heading. There is also a ton of bad information on YouTube, social media, and across the web, on the chances of a coming recession.
So we have the normal mainstream business media telling people everything is wonderful in the economic world, because that's their job, to keep you happy, in an attempt to keep a recession from happening. So we have far more people available to listen to or watch, on economic issues and business news these days, than ever before. We have the broadest, and best, and worst, information leading up to this recession, of any recession in history. You can do research yourself, and compare different sources, and see what makes sense. That's why this recession feels old already, even though it probably hasn't officially started yet. There's far more information out there, and far more people talking about it, than any other time in history.
This recession tried to happen in late 2018, when the stock markets in the final months of the year. But The Fed lowered interest rates in the following months, to buy some time. Then this recession tried to happen again in early 2020, sparked by the unexpected pandemic that we're all trying to forget. But that was followed by The Fed creating about $6 trillion in new money, basically out of thin air. That's how fiat currencies work... near the end of a long cycle. Yeah, we were all Hood Rich for a while, and a lot of people bought stupid stuff with much of that money from PUA, PPP and other programs. Then, in 2021, the inevitable inflation wave from that huge jump in new money began, and surged upward, and didn't go away. Many months later, The Fed, who created the inflation to begin with, started raising interest rates, faster than ever in history, to fight inflation. Interest sensitive parts of the economy, like real estate, hit the brakes soon after, in the booming areas.
Now I'm a macro economics and futurist geek, and I actually enjoy trying to figure out long term trends. Most of you aren't, I get that. Here's where I see things headed (most likely) in a nutshell. All kinds of economic indicators (yield curve inversions in the bond market, among them, are flashing red. There is a major recession coming, there's not a doubt in my mind of that. We've seen real estate slow down in many places already, interest rates have soared, it's much harder to get loans now, for many businesses and individuals. We've seen tens of thousands of layoffs in the tech sector in recent months? Why have there been so many layoffs in tech? Because those are the smart people. They know something dark is coming, and they laid off people early on, rather than waiting six months or a year, like many other businesses have.
We've been through recessions before, what's the big deal about this one? There are several, much deeper issues happening in society now (see "Dystopia" link above), and this recession (possibly a depression) will dramatically change nearly everyone's lives. There's a lot of change that's going to happen outside the financial world, as well. That's why I think this one is a big deal.
I could ramble on for hours here, but I'll keep it somewhat short and sweet. I think we have about three months before things really hit the visible downward spiral. For most of you out there, getting out of as much debt as you can, is one of the smartest moves right now. If you've kept debt to a minimum, and have a pretty recession proof job, hey, more power to you, carry on. But if you're like most Americans, you probably have a bunch of debt that's gotten harder to pay as interest rates went up. Listen to the video above, it's about 15 minutes. Look at your situation, and see if any of his ideas make sense.
Here are some of my favorite YouTube channels for financial information. If you're interest, check them out, they all have lots of videos, and a ton of information on different aspects of the economic world, personal and business finances, and investing. Check them out if you want, see if they have some info helpful for your situation.
Reventure Consulting (real estate focused)
Stephanie Pomboy interview (business oriented macro outlook)
Danielle De Martino Booth (former Fed employee and macro expert)
Ray Dalio (short interview) His "Debt Cycle" concept is another long term cycle predicting a major economic crisis soon.
There are no paid links in this post. I don't agree with everything all of these people say, but I've found all of these channels to be pretty solid information, over all, depending what you are interest in.
I've started a new blog, about side gigs, and ideas and info for small businesses. Check it out.
As of the late summer of 2023, I'm doing a lot of my writing on Substack, a platform designed specifically for writers. Check it out!
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