The Ecomonic Collapse of our lifetimes will happen this month... It's phoenix time

A great visual depiction of the idea of a phoenix, burning up then being reborn from the ashes, courtesy of Harry Potter.  That phoenix, Fawkes, gave a feather that is the core of Harry's wand.   

It's October 1st, 2019.  For a couple of years now, I've been writing and talking about the coming recession.  Back in early 2018, when the financial market thought the economy was going to surge for 3 to 5 more years, because of Trump's massive tax cuts, I disagreed.  I predicted that the stock market would start to turn down a month or two after the tax cuts were signed, because the promise of that massive windfall to corporate America, and the super rich, was the main force driving the markets up (here's one post, January 2, 2018).  President Trump sign the tax cuts on December 22, 2017.  Almost a month to the day, January 26thm 2018, the stock market turned downward, you can check the chart.

What I got wrong was the incredible manipulation that was going to take place to try and keep the market moving up, mostly to make the economy appear vibrant, and get Donald Trump, and a lot of Republicans in other offices, elected again.  Nomi Prins and her explanation of the collective central banks actions after 2008 helped me, and others, understand this weird financial Never Never Land we find ourselves in now.  There are trillions of government bonds paying negative interest rates, for example.  Are wealthy individuals and institutions really going to keep investing in bonds that cost them money?  I doubt it.

As I write this, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is only 26 points above where it was on January 26th, 2018.  Overall, the Dow is up 26 freakin' points in 20 months.  Not 26%, 26 points!  Healthy and vibrant economy?  Nope.  The bond yields have been dropping, and are now below the dismal inflation numbers, by and large.  And that's the strong part of the economy.  


Across rural, small town, and mid-size city America, things have been pretty dismal economically since 2008.  There are some exceptions, of course, but much of this country has missed out on the 10+ years of expansion that did happen.  For many rural areas and small towns, they've basically been in a great depression, a geographic great depression, for 11 years now.

I've been interested in futurist thinking since I was a kid.  I've been interested in economics since high school, and I'm 53 now.  This is my geek zone, long term social dynamics and economic trends are the weird stuff I find fascinating.

So now, I think we'll see this recession's "Lehman Brother Moment" happen this month, during October 2019. 

 I think we are very likely already in "the next recession."  But recessions are officially labeled months, maybe even years, after they actually happen.  So it's always arguable that we're in a recession, while we're in one.  But I think we're due for the big moment, a Lehman Brothers-style moment, this month, that will make the economic downturn obvious to everyone.  It  may be a collapse of GE, based on the allegations from about 6 weeks ago.  Or it could be the impeachment, the trade war, or something else.  But I think the big moment will happen in October 2019.   And yeah, that's going to suck for most people.  That's the bad news.

The good news is that the long term forces in play here are the collapse of the remaining parts of the Industrial Age infrastructure, and our long, messy, sticky transition into a functional Information Age world.  That's the phoenix part.

Things like our education system, particularly the college system, largely held up by $1.6 TRILLION of student debt, will meet the Disruption Monster.  College as an institution will collapse, much in the way we see the Retail Apocalypse now.  And then it will have to be rebuilt.  Colleges won't go away completely, we need them for certain jobs and career paths.  But many colleges will go under, or be absorbed into larger, more viable ones.

A perfect example is that Mount Ida College, where hardcore entrepreneur Gary Vaynerchuk went to school, is now out of business.  But Gary Vaynerchuk isn't, he's not only thriving, he's looking forward to this economic downturn, and the incredible amount of opportunities it will bring about.  Rich Dad, Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki is also looking forward to the coming opportunities, and talking openly about it.  Warren Buffet is too, I imagine, but he doesn't say it, although he drops a little hint here and there.

This economic downturn will be much more than a typical recession.  This is the Phoenix Recession, a collapse of much of the obsolete parts of the Industrial Age world, businesses, power structures, and systems, and new, Information Age businesses and systems will be built, taking their place.  That's the long term Big Picture that I see, and have been writing about as I have been able.  My question for each of you is, do you want to ride the collapse down and be crushed, or do you want to look ahead and help build a viable future, using today's technology, platforms, and opportunities? 

Personally, I'm in a really down and out place financially, and there's a long story about that, a story I won't get into.  But I'm looking to build something cool with some of the opportunities this economic downturn, this Phoenix Recession, will provide.  We're at the top of the roller coaster hill, are you ready for this ride?

A day later... 10/2/2019- The markets were down a couple hundred points yesterday, and I didn't expect a huge drop right away.  But as of close of the stock markets today, the Dow Industrial Average was down over 800 points.  It's a really rough start to Quarter 4 of this business year, and a lot of traders and investors are feeling a recession is more likely.  But this post was to predict that I believe the big event no one can deny, the "Lehman Brothers Moment" of this economic downturn will happen this month.  The markets will rebound a bit tomorrow or the next day, but the think the big economic bomb will drop later this month, and we'll be on our way down do about Dow 17,500, and similar percentage rate declines in the other averages.